Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating to "Hold" with a target price of HKD 7.5, based on a valuation of 0.6x 2025 PS, corresponding to an estimated market capitalization of HKD 10.8 billion [2][4]. Core Views - The company issued a profit warning, projecting a net loss attributable to the parent company between RMB 3.8 billion and RMB 4.1 billion for 2024, compared to a net profit of RMB 4.345 billion in 2023. The primary reason for the loss is the recent slight increase in silicon material prices, which are expected to rise modestly due to short-term demand [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the production schedules and inventory levels of manufacturers closely, as the silicon material prices have shown a recent uptick [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 19.855 billion, RMB 16.526 billion, and RMB 19.492 billion, respectively, indicating a significant decline in revenue from 2023 [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be a loss of RMB 4.044 billion in 2024, a loss of RMB 2.325 billion in 2025, and a loss of RMB 802 million in 2026 [2][3]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be -2.83 yuan in 2024, -1.63 yuan in 2025, and -0.56 yuan in 2026 [3][10]. - The report highlights a significant drop in revenue and net profit margins, with a forecasted revenue decline of 35% in 2024 and a further 17% in 2025 [3][10]. Market Conditions - The report notes that the silicon material prices have recently increased to USD 4.94/kg as of March 5, 2025, and suggests that the market should be closely monitored for further developments [1][2]. - The report indicates that the average selling price of silicon material is expected to drop significantly in 2024, with a projected average price of USD 5.45/kg, down from USD 14/kg in 2023 [1][10].
新特能源：公司发布盈警，关注后续硅料价格-20250311