招财日报2025.3.11 零跑汽车点评

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Leap Motor (零跑汽车) with a target price of HKD 50 [1][3]. Core Insights - The pricing of the new B10 electric SUV is highly competitive, with a pre-sale price range of RMB 109,800 to 139,800, which may lead to an increase in sales forecasts for 2025 [1]. - The company is expected to achieve breakeven in 2025, with a projected gross margin increase and a significant rise in total revenue [2]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are set to grow significantly, with expectations of reaching RMB 510 billion and RMB 575 billion respectively [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Leap Motor's B10 model is anticipated to boost sales, with an upward revision of 25,000 units for the 2025 sales forecast, raising total sales expectations from 450,000 to 480,000 units [1]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the gross margin increased by 5.2 percentage points to 13.3%, with total revenue rising by 37% to RMB 13.5 billion, marking the first net profit of RMB 81 million [2]. - The overall gross margin for 2025 is expected to improve by 2.9 percentage points to 11.2%, driven by cost reductions from the Leap 3.5 platform [2]. Future Projections - Revenue for 2025 is projected to grow by 59% year-on-year, reaching RMB 510 billion, while 2026 is expected to see a net profit of RMB 1.26 billion with the launch of new models [3]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 50 based on a price-to-sales ratio of 1.2x for FY25, aligning with the average valuation multiples of new energy vehicle manufacturers in China [3].