ANGEL YEAST(600298) 广发证券·2025-03-11 08:40Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of 35.64 CNY and a fair value of 46.87 CNY [3]. Core Views - The domestic supply-demand landscape is improving, and the company is expected to benefit from stable volume and price growth in its products by 2025 [8][55]. - The company has accelerated its overseas expansion, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.9% in overseas revenue from 2021 to 2024, and continued growth expected in 2025 [8][55]. - The company has completed a capital expenditure cycle, with limited domestic yeast capacity expansion in the short term, while focusing on overseas projects [8][55]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market - The yeast demand structure is primarily driven by baked goods and alcoholic beverages, with traditional yeast demand recovering and contributions from yeast extract (YE) expected to increase [14][21]. - The supply side shows limited capacity expansion in the short term, with the company positioned as a leader in the domestic market, holding a 55% market share by 2024 [31][34]. - The company is expected to achieve stable volume growth and price stability in its products due to improved supply-demand dynamics and limited competition from new entrants [55]. Overseas Market - The company has been rapidly expanding its overseas business, with significant growth in revenue expected to continue [8][55]. - Key advantages in overseas markets include high cost-performance of products, strong local channel networks, and leading technology in dry yeast and YE [8][55]. - The profitability of overseas operations is anticipated to improve due to an increase in YE's share and ramp-up of overseas production capacity [8][55]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 152.48 billion CNY, 175.56 billion CNY, and 199.70 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.3%, 15.1%, and 13.7% respectively [2][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 13.69 billion CNY, 16.29 billion CNY, and 18.83 billion CNY for the same period, with growth rates of 7.8%, 19.0%, and 15.6% respectively [2][8]. - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on a target price of 46.87 CNY per share, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25 times for 2025 [8][55].