Amazon(AMZN) 国信证券·2025-03-11 08:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The company is a leader in North American e-commerce and cloud computing, with a strong long-term investment moat. In 2024, retail business revenue accounted for 83% and cloud computing for 17%. The retail segment can be further broken down into online e-commerce (39%), physical stores (3%), third-party seller services (24%), advertising services (9%), subscription services (7%), and others (1%). Cloud computing is the largest profit source, contributing 58% of operating profit in 2024 with an operating profit margin of 37% [3][10][16] - The company has a strong leverage and cyclical nature, maintaining its industry-leading position through long-term investments in logistics, subsidies, streaming, and cloud computing. Since 2023, the company has improved its profit margins significantly through workforce optimization, advertising business expansion, and fulfillment efficiency enhancements [3][4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is recognized as a leader in the e-commerce and cloud computing sectors [6] Stock Price Review - Long-term investments have created a strong moat, with evident leverage and cyclical characteristics [28] Retail Business - GMV is expected to grow steadily, driven by stable market share and user supply. The company is expanding into beauty, automotive, and other categories while enhancing Prime membership benefits [4] - The take rate is stable for logistics and commission fees, with advertising monetization rates continuing to rise. Advertising revenue is projected to grow significantly, with a 20% increase in 2024 [4] - Advertising growth is expected to release profit elasticity, with operational profit margin (OPM) projected to increase by 1.4 percentage points in 2025 due to improved fulfillment efficiency and reduced logistics-related CAPEX [4] Cloud Computing - The demand for cloud computing is expected to surge in the AI era, with the company positioned to catch up to competitors. The company has a significant first-mover advantage in cloud computing, having launched its core product EC2 in 2006 [3][4] - The company has completed a full-stack AI layout, with a strong presence in IaaS and proprietary chip development, enhancing its competitive edge [3][4] Profit Forecast & Investment Recommendations - The core growth drivers for the company are expected to be robust advertising and cloud computing businesses. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 772.2 billion, and 67.6 billion, 99.9 billion [4]