XWXN(688778) 国联民生证券·2025-03-11 08:20Investment Rating - The report assigns an initial "Buy" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - The company is recognized as a leader in cobalt lithium materials, with future growth driven by its leading market share in cobalt lithium shipments, advancements in nickel-rich ternary materials, and a strong position in solid-state electrolyte technology [4][16]. - The company is expected to see steady revenue growth, with projected revenues of 133.0 billion, 155.9 billion, and 205.6 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -23.2%, +17.2%, and +31.9% [12][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Cobalt Lithium Leadership and Profitability Recovery - The company has been a pioneer in cobalt lithium production since 2004 and has expanded into ternary materials since 2012, establishing a strong foothold in both consumer electronics and power battery applications [25]. - The company has a significant market share in cobalt lithium, with a projected global market share of 44% by 2024, driven by increasing demand from the 3C electronics sector [11][16]. 2. Ternary Material Technology Advantages - The company’s nickel-rich high-voltage products are technologically advanced and have achieved mass production, with a focus on meeting the growing demand in the electric vehicle sector [11][12]. - The company is developing ultra-high nickel products and has a comprehensive product range covering all nickel series and voltage platforms, enhancing its competitive edge [16]. 3. Solid-State Electrolyte and NL Electrode Advancements - The NL electrode material shows significant advantages in energy density, cycle life, and cost-effectiveness compared to traditional materials, with plans for application in various sectors by 2025 [12][34]. - The company is strategically positioned in the solid-state electrolyte market, with promising results from pilot tests indicating substantial cost reduction potential [12][34]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.18, 1.85, and 2.37 yuan respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.64% over three years [12][18]. - The report estimates a fair value of 65.80 yuan per share based on discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, with a target price of 66.6 yuan considering the company's leadership in cobalt lithium and ongoing product innovations [12][18].