高盛：亚洲经济：高科技制造业已成为中国的下一个增长引擎吗？

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for high-tech manufacturing in China, suggesting it could become a key growth engine for the economy [4][5]. Core Insights - Recent advancements in China's high-tech sectors, particularly with the emergence of AI models like DeepSeek, have led to optimism regarding medium-term growth [4][5]. - High-tech manufacturing has significantly outperformed other manufacturing sectors, driven by strong domestic policy support and increased external demand [4][19]. - The sector has contributed an average of 1.1 percentage points (pp) to annual real GDP growth over the past decade, with expectations of continued contributions of around 1.0 pp from 2025 to 2029 [33][45]. Summary by Sections High-tech Manufacturing Performance - High-tech manufacturing has been a significant growth driver, contributing an average of 1.1 pp to annual GDP growth over the last decade, with a peak contribution of over 2 pp in 2021 [33][36]. - The sector's share in total manufacturing value added has increased from 30% in 2005 to 40% in 2024, and it now accounts for approximately 8% of GDP [12][33]. Factors Driving Growth - The outperformance of high-tech manufacturing is attributed to two main factors: increased domestic policy support and a rise in external demand, with real exports growing at an annualized rate of 8% from 2019 to 2024 [19][23]. - Key high-tech sectors, such as industrial robots and semiconductors, have seen substantial production growth, reflecting the government's push for self-sufficiency and technological advancement [15][19]. Future Outlook - The baseline scenario anticipates that high-tech manufacturing will continue to outperform the broader manufacturing sector, with expected annual growth rates of 4.8% in real terms from 2024 to 2029 [39][41]. - Scenario analysis suggests that high-tech manufacturing's contribution to GDP growth could range from 0.6 pp to 1.4 pp, depending on various macroeconomic factors and trade tensions [44][47].