高盛：全球视野：从上至下（从宏观到微观）

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the 2025 US GDP growth forecast from 2.4% to 1.7%, marking the first below-consensus forecast in 2½ years [1][3]. Core Insights - The downgrade is primarily due to more adverse trade policy assumptions and expectations of tariff-induced near-term economic weakness, with the average US tariff rate expected to rise by 10 percentage points this year [3][5]. - Tariffs are projected to subtract an estimated 0.8 percentage points from GDP growth over the next year, with only a minor offset from tax cuts and regulatory easing [8][12]. - Core PCE inflation is expected to reaccelerate to 3% later this year, leading to a forecast of two 25 basis point cuts by the Federal Reserve [13][16]. - The medium-term growth outlook in the Euro area has improved due to potential changes in German fiscal policy, with expected growth boosts of 0.5 percentage points in Germany and 0.25 percentage points in the Euro area over the next 2-3 years [16][17]. - Despite increased US tariffs, sentiment towards the Chinese economy has improved, with expectations of a gradual rise in AI's contribution to China's GDP growth starting in 2026 [20][21]. Summary by Sections US Economic Outlook - The US GDP growth forecast has been downgraded to 1.7% for 2025, influenced by adverse trade policies and tariff expectations [1][3]. - The average US tariff rate is expected to increase by 10 percentage points, significantly impacting consumer prices and real income [3][5][8]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Core PCE inflation is projected to rise to 3%, prompting expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [13][16]. - The report maintains a dovish outlook for monetary policy in developed markets, particularly in response to tariff impacts [18]. Euro Area Growth - The report highlights an improved growth outlook for the Euro area, particularly due to changes in German fiscal policy, with expected growth boosts in the coming years [16][17]. China Economic Sentiment - Despite tariff increases, there is a noted improvement in sentiment towards the Chinese economy, with expectations of AI contributing more significantly to GDP growth starting in 2026 [20][21].