洛阳钼业：动态报告：钴王者归来-20250312

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The suspension of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to stabilize cobalt prices, with a projected supply reduction of approximately 25% globally [1][10]. - The market has two misconceptions regarding the company's sales impact due to the DRC's export ban; the company has sufficient in-transit inventory to benefit from rising cobalt prices in the short term, and the long-term potential for price increases is underestimated [2][14]. - The introduction of a quota system post-ban is anticipated to elevate the cobalt price center, significantly enhancing the company's profit margins [3][42]. Summary by Sections Section 1: DRC Export Ban and Cobalt Price Stabilization - The DRC's decision to halt cobalt exports for four months aims to address the oversupply in the global cobalt market, which could lead to a price floor being established [1][10]. - The DRC accounts for approximately 76% of global cobalt production, and the export ban is expected to shift the market from surplus to a potential deficit [1][13]. Section 2: Company Performance and Inventory Management - The company is positioned as a leading player in the cobalt industry, with significant projects located in the DRC [16]. - In the short term, the company's performance is supported by in-transit inventory, which is estimated at around 28,500 tons, providing a profit increase of approximately 870 million yuan [2][34]. - The company’s cobalt production is projected to reach 114,000 tons in 2024, making it the largest cobalt producer globally [26][48]. Section 3: Long-term Profitability and Quota System - The anticipated implementation of a quota system is expected to raise the cobalt price center, with potential net profit per ton increasing from 9,200 yuan to 51,300 yuan [3][44]. - The company is expected to capture a significant share of the quotas, allowing it to benefit from higher prices while maintaining production levels [3][42]. Section 4: Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 13.32 billion, 15.12 billion, and 17.02 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 0.62, 0.70, and 0.79 yuan [5][48].