Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Mijiu Group (02097.HK), marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - Mijiu Group is positioned as a leader in the affordable ready-to-drink beverage market, with a significant brand dominance reflected in its extensive store network and strong market presence [8][62]. - The company has a robust growth trajectory, with projected revenues increasing from 20.3 billion RMB in 2023 to 31.2 billion RMB by 2026, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.66% [1]. - Mijiu's net profit is expected to grow from 3.1 billion RMB in 2023 to 5.9 billion RMB in 2026, indicating a strong profitability outlook [1][62]. - The brand's unique IP, "Xue Wang," has significantly enhanced its marketing effectiveness, achieving over 43.5 billion views on social media platforms, which contributes to its brand recognition and consumer engagement [45][62]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Position and Brand Dominance - Mijiu Group operates over 40,000 stores, far surpassing competitors, which typically have between 3,000 to 9,000 stores, showcasing its market leadership [8][19]. - The affordable ready-to-drink beverage segment is projected to grow at a CAGR of 23% from 2024 to 2028, positioning Mijiu favorably within this high-growth market [14][15]. 2. Financial Performance and Projections - The company’s total revenue is forecasted to reach 24.0 billion RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 18.36% [1]. - Mijiu's earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 8.26 RMB in 2023 to 15.64 RMB by 2026, reflecting strong earnings growth [1]. 3. Competitive Landscape - Mijiu holds a market share of over 30% in the affordable ready-to-drink beverage sector, while competitors struggle to establish similar dominance in the mid-priced segment [29][34]. - The mid-priced beverage market is highly competitive, with brands like Luckin Coffee and others vying for market share, but Mijiu's position remains strong in the affordable segment [26][34]. 4. International Expansion and Future Outlook - Mijiu has begun its international expansion, with 4,792 stores outside of mainland China, primarily in Southeast Asia, indicating significant growth potential [54][61]. - The company aims to enhance its supply chain and marketing strategies to support its overseas growth, with plans to enter markets like Japan [58][62].
蜜雪集团：如何看待已千亿的蜜雪未来空间？—何以为“王”-20250312