BAOFENG ENERGY(SH:600989) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-03-12 07:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][4][17] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 32.98 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 6.34 billion yuan, up 12.2% year-on-year. The company is expected to maintain high growth due to stable capacity release and favorable cost conditions from falling coal prices [4][5][6] - The company is projected to have net profits of 12.74 billion yuan, 13.64 billion yuan, and 13.90 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a significant growth of 101% in 2025 [4][8] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 8.71 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18%, and a net profit of 1.8 billion yuan, up 46.2% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - The average selling price for polyethylene and polypropylene in 2024 was 7,088.6 yuan/ton and 6,696.5 yuan/ton respectively, with a slight increase in polyethylene prices and a slight decrease in polypropylene prices [5] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve, with a projected gross margin of 34.1% in 2025 [8] Growth Drivers - The Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang projects are expected to significantly contribute to the company's growth, with the first production line of the Inner Mongolia 3 million tons ethylene project already operational and further lines expected to come online in 2025 [6] - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio to 47.44% in 2024, up 11.1 percentage points from 2023, enhancing returns for investors [6]