Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Jinmao (0817.HK) [4][6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant turnaround in profitability, forecasting an attributable profit of approximately 1 billion yuan for 2024, compared to a core net loss of 6.9 billion yuan in 2023 [1] - The management transition aims to optimize operations, with the new chairman bringing over 25 years of experience in hotel and real estate development, which is anticipated to stabilize performance [2] - The company is actively expanding its land acquisition in first-tier and core second-tier cities, with total land acquisition exceeding 20 billion yuan in early 2025, indicating confidence in the real estate market [3] - The issuance of special bonds for land reserves is expected to enhance cash flow and facilitate further land acquisitions [3] Summary by Sections Profit Forecast and Financial Indicators - For 2024, total revenue is projected at 68.205 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.042 billion yuan, marking a 115.1% increase from the previous year [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from -0.51 yuan in 2023 to 0.08 yuan in 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14x [5][8] - The company anticipates revenue growth rates of -5.8% in 2024, 2.0% in 2025, and 7.0% in 2026 [5] Land Acquisition and Market Position - The company has been proactive in land acquisition, securing multiple plots in major cities, which reflects a strategic positioning in a recovering real estate market [3] - The total land acquisition amount in late 2024 reached 15.8 billion yuan, further solidifying the company's market presence [3] Management and Strategic Direction - The new chairman's extensive experience is expected to enhance the company's market-oriented operations and stabilize performance [2] - The management's focus on lean management practices has led to reduced costs and improved efficiency, contributing to the anticipated profit growth [1]
中国金茂：2024年正面盈利预告点评：利润扭亏大幅转正，管理层换届剑指经营优化-20250312