APELOA(000739) 东吴证券·2025-03-12 08:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The CDMO segment is expected to become a new growth driver despite short-term pressure on the raw materials business. The CDMO segment is projected to achieve revenue of 1.884 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 6.05%, with a gross profit of 773 million yuan and a gross margin of 41.06% [3] - The pharmaceutical segment is experiencing rapid gross profit growth due to a differentiated competitive strategy, with expected revenue of 1.256 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 0.51%, and a gross profit of 764 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 15.02% [3] - The overall revenue for the company in 2024 is projected to be 12.022 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.77%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.031 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.29% [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve total revenue of 12.022 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.77%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.031 billion yuan, down 2.29% [9] - The company’s gross margin is anticipated to improve as the revenue share from the raw materials business declines and the shares from the CDMO and pharmaceutical segments increase [9] CDMO Segment - The CDMO segment is expected to see a revenue of 1.884 billion yuan in 2024, down 6.05%, but the number of projects is increasing significantly, with 1,601 quoted projects (up 77%) and 996 ongoing projects (up 35%) [3] - The growth in projects is expected to create a funnel model that will drive profit growth in the future [3] Pharmaceutical Segment - The pharmaceutical segment is projected to generate revenue of 1.256 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross profit of 764 million yuan, leading to a gross margin of 60.81%, an increase of 7.67 percentage points [3] - The company is focusing on differentiated competition by developing unique products and improving production efficiency [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 1.175 billion yuan and 1.392 billion yuan, respectively, due to pressures in the raw materials business and potential foreign exchange losses [3] - The current market valuation corresponds to P/E ratios of 15, 13, and 11 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3]