Anlogic(688107) 华西证券·2025-03-12 08:40Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [4][6][18]. Core Insights - The company experienced a temporary pressure on performance in 2024, with revenue declining by 6.99% year-on-year to 652 million yuan, and a net loss of 204 million yuan, which is an increase in losses by 419% year-on-year. The decline in revenue is attributed to the ongoing destocking cycle among end customers and a slower-than-expected recovery in downstream demand [1][2][4]. - Despite the challenges, the company demonstrated resilience compared to overseas competitors, with expectations for recovery in demand from sectors such as telecommunications, industrial control, and automotive in 2025. The inventory levels are gradually returning to normal, which is anticipated to improve revenue and gross margins [2][4]. - The introduction of new products, such as the PH1P from the Phoenix series, is aimed at expanding into new markets and customer segments, particularly in industrial control and automotive applications [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading domestic FPGA manufacturer, established in 2011, with a product range that includes FPGA chips, FPSoC, and specialized EDA software. Its products are widely used in various sectors including industrial control, network communication, consumer electronics, data centers, and smart automotive electronics [13][14]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are 652 million yuan, 818 million yuan, and 1.01 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -7.0%, +25.7%, and +23.4%. The net profit forecasts for the same period are -204 million yuan, -200 million yuan, and -167 million yuan [4][10][14]. - The report anticipates improvements in gross margins, with expectations of 31.0% in 2024, 38.1% in 2025, and 40.6% in 2026 [10][22]. Relative Valuation - The report compares the company with peers such as Zhaoyi Innovation, Fudan Microelectronics, and Unisoc, with a projected price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 22x for 2024, 18x for 2025, and 14x for 2026. The average PS ratio for comparable companies is noted to be around 21x for 2025 [18][19].