Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics with a target price of HK13.20 [1][9]. Core Insights - JD Logistics reported strong performance in 2024, with revenue growth of 9.7% and a significant increase in adjusted net profit by 187%, exceeding management's initial guidance [6][7]. - Despite the strong 2024 results, management's conservative guidance for 2025 suggests low double-digit revenue growth and single-digit adjusted net profit growth, which has led to market dissatisfaction and a subsequent drop in stock price [7][8]. - The current valuation of JD Logistics appears attractive, trading at 10.6 times the 2025 P/E ratio, which is lower compared to peers in the logistics sector [8][15]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 was RMB 182,838 million, with a projected revenue of RMB 205,510 million for 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 12.4% [10][20]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 was RMB 6,867 million, with an expected increase to RMB 7,353 million in 2025, indicating a growth of 7.1% [10][20]. - The gross profit margin improved from 7.6% in 2023 to 10.2% in 2024, with a projected margin of 10.7% for 2025 [10][20]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The report has adjusted the earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026, increasing revenue estimates by 7.3% and 9.0% respectively, based on the strong performance in 2024 [13][14]. - The adjusted EPS for 2025 is now projected at RMB 1.18, up from RMB 1.07, reflecting a 10.5% increase [14][15]. Valuation Analysis - The target price of HK$23.28 is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, maintaining a WACC of 12.1% and a perpetual growth rate of 2% [15][16]. - The current stock price is seen as having limited downside potential due to the conservative guidance and low market expectations [8][9].
京东物流：一系列业绩表现强劲，管理层2025年指引依然保守-20250312