APELOA(000739) 东吴证券·2025-03-12 08:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The CDMO segment is expected to become a new growth driver despite short-term pressure on the raw materials business. The CDMO segment is projected to achieve revenue of 1.884 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 6.05%, with a gross profit of 773 million yuan and a gross margin of 41.06% [3] - The pharmaceutical segment is experiencing rapid gross profit growth due to a differentiated competitive strategy, with expected revenue of 1.256 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 0.51%, and a gross profit of 764 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 15.02% [3] - The overall revenue for 2024 is projected to be 12.022 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.77%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.031 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.29% [9] Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s revenue is forecasted to grow from 11.474 billion yuan in 2023 to 12.022 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.77% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 1.055 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.031 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected recovery to 1.175 billion yuan in 2025 [1] - The P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 17.22 in 2023 to 15.47 in 2025, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [1] Operational Insights - The company has formed a preliminary funnel model for its CDMO business, with 1,601 quoted projects in 2024, a 77% increase, and 996 ongoing projects, a 35% increase [3] - The pharmaceutical segment's gross margin is expected to improve significantly, reaching 60.81% in 2024, up by 7.67 percentage points, due to adjustments in sales models and increased production efficiency [3] - The overall gross margin of the company is anticipated to improve as the revenue share from the lower-margin raw materials business declines and the higher-margin CDMO and pharmaceutical businesses grow [9]