XCMG(000425)2025-03-13 00:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 11.22 RMB based on a 17x PE for 2025 [3]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from state-owned enterprise reforms and improved profitability, with a projected net profit margin increase of 3.2 percentage points from 2022 to Q3 2024 [1]. - Domestic demand for excavators is anticipated to recover, with a forecast of 100,500 units sold in 2024, representing an 11.7% year-on-year increase [1]. - The mining machinery segment is poised for significant growth, with expected revenues of 8.501 billion, 11.552 billion, and 15.445 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 45.1%, 35.9%, and 33.7% [2]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The company has optimized its revenue structure by merging with Xugong Limited, incorporating high-margin products such as earthmoving and mining machinery [1]. - The focus on improving gross margins and reducing risk exposure has been emphasized through market-oriented executive compensation and stock incentives linked to ROE and net profit [1]. - The company is expected to see a revenue growth rate of -2.7%, +11.5%, and +14.7% from 2024 to 2026 [1]. Mining Machinery - The global open-pit mining machinery market exceeds 37 billion USD, with a projected 3% year-on-year increase in demand for 2024 [2]. - The company has secured nearly 4 billion RMB in orders from top foreign clients, indicating a potential breakout period for its mining machinery segment [2]. - The company’s mining machinery revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 8.501 billion, 11.552 billion, and 15.445 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 90.317 billion, 100.662 billion, and 115.458 billion RMB from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of 5.946 billion, 7.799 billion, and 10.263 billion RMB [3]. - The expected PE ratios for the same period are 19, 14, and 11 times respectively [3].