东鹏饮料：全年高增收官，扬帆起航正当时-20250313

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dongpeng Beverage (605499) with a current price of 226.67 CNY and a target price not specified for the next six months [1]. Core Views - Dongpeng Beverage achieved strong revenue growth in 2024, with total revenue reaching 15.84 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.33 billion CNY, up 63.1% year-on-year [7]. - The company plans to list on the Hong Kong stock exchange, and its overseas business is expected to contribute to long-term excess returns [7]. - The growth in the energy drink segment is driven by the 500ml large Dongpeng product, while the electrolyte drink segment is expanding into new consumption scenarios [7]. - The company has established a diversified product matrix with a "dual-engine + multi-category" approach, enhancing its market presence [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2024A: Revenue of 15.84 billion CNY, net profit of 3.33 billion CNY - 2025E: Revenue of 20.57 billion CNY, net profit of 4.42 billion CNY - 2026E: Revenue of 25.43 billion CNY, net profit of 5.58 billion CNY - 2027E: Revenue of 30.78 billion CNY, net profit of 6.94 billion CNY [2][10]. - Growth Rates: - Revenue growth rates are projected at 40.63% for 2024, 29.86% for 2025, 23.62% for 2026, and 21.05% for 2027 [2]. - Net profit growth rates are expected to be 63.09% for 2024, 32.94% for 2025, 26.23% for 2026, and 24.38% for 2027 [2]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - EPS is projected to be 6.40 CNY for 2024, 8.50 CNY for 2025, 10.74 CNY for 2026, and 13.35 CNY for 2027 [2]. - Valuation Metrics: - Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 35 in 2024 to 17 in 2027 [2]. - Price-to-Book (PB) ratio is projected to decline from 15.32 in 2024 to 6.57 in 2027 [2]. Business Segmentation - Energy Drinks: - Revenue of 13.30 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 28.7% [10]. - Expected to maintain a gross margin of 48.3% in 2024, increasing to 52% by 2027 [10]. - Electrolyte Drinks: - Revenue of 1.50 billion CNY in 2024, with a projected growth rate of 80% [10]. - Gross margin expected to rise from 29.7% in 2024 to 34% by 2027 [10]. - Other Beverages: - Revenue of 1.02 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 22.3% [10]. - Gross margin expected to stabilize at 30% from 2025 onwards [10].