Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company expects a revenue of 24 billion and a net profit of 3.84 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.35% and 20.0% respectively, primarily driven by the new factory's production and improving worker efficiency [2] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 20 yuan per 10 shares, with a dividend payout ratio of 61%, which is an increase of 17 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company has initiated cooperation with Adidas, with mass production expected to start in September 2024, and has opened three new factories in Vietnam and another in Indonesia [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a Q4 revenue of 6.495 billion and a net profit of 999 million, with year-on-year growth of 11.9% and 9.2% respectively [2] - The sales volume for 2024 is projected to be 223 million pairs, with an average selling price (ASP) of 107 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 18% in volume and 2% in price [3] - The capacity utilization rate for Q4 was approximately 100%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year [3] Investment Recommendations - Concerns in the market include high inventory levels, slowing growth from DECKERS, and the impact of new factory production on profit margins. However, there is still potential for market share growth with brands like Adidas, ON, NB, and REEBOK contributing additional revenue [4] - The company is expected to experience a capital expenditure peak in 2025 and 2026 due to new factory openings, which may temporarily affect profit margins but is anticipated to enhance long-term revenue and profit elasticity [4] Adjustments to Forecasts - The revenue forecast for 2024 has been adjusted from 23.5 billion to 24 billion, while the net profit forecast has been revised from 3.893 billion to 3.841 billion [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024 has been adjusted from 3.34 to 3.29 yuan, with 2025 and 2026 EPS forecasts maintained at 3.89 and 4.48 yuan respectively [5] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 20, 17, and 14 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation given the potential for market share growth and rapid expansion [5]
华利集团：24Q4及25Q1受新工厂效率爬坡影响-20250313