Duolingo(US:DUOL) Tianfeng Securities·2025-03-13 08:06Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [10]. Core Insights - The company reported Q4 revenue of $210 million, a year-over-year increase of 39%, slightly exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates of $205 million. However, net profit was $13.9 million, which fell short of the expected $23.7 million [1]. - The growth in performance is primarily attributed to the high adoption rate of Duolingo Max and strong demand for family plans [1]. - The company has a total booking volume of $272 million, up 42% year-over-year, surpassing the Bloomberg consensus of $247 million [1]. - Daily active users (DAU) reached 40.5 million, a 51% increase year-over-year, slightly exceeding expectations [2]. - The company plans to drive more users towards family and Max plans to enhance average revenue per user (ARPU), which is expected to be a key growth driver in the coming years [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q4 net cash provided by operating activities was $83.3 million, compared to $49.2 million in the same period last year [1]. - Subscription bookings reached $237 million, a 50% year-over-year increase, exceeding expectations [1]. User Engagement - The company’s family plan accounts for 23% of the overall subscription business, showing higher user retention and lifetime value (LTV) compared to individual plans [2]. - Duolingo Max currently covers a majority of DAU, accounting for about 5% of total subscribers [3]. Future Outlook - The company expects Q1 total revenue to be between $221 million and $224 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 31.6% to 33.4% [3]. - For 2025, the company anticipates total revenue of $963 million to $979 million, with a year-over-year growth of 28.7% to 30.8% [3]. - The company is increasing investments in AI to enhance user experience and content production efficiency, which is expected to support long-term growth [4].