RADICAL(300652) 华鑫证券·2025-03-13 08:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2]. Core Views - The company is actively expanding its revenue through both aftermarket and OEM markets, with significant growth in OEM sales, which increased by 105% year-on-year in 2023 [4][26]. - The company is enhancing its production capacity through flexible manufacturing and the establishment of new factories, which will support its growth in the OEM market [5]. - The company is extending its industrial chain by acquiring a precision component manufacturer to enter the humanoid robot industry, indicating a strategic move into high-growth sectors [6]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 778 million, 1.218 billion, and 1.495 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 125 million, 156 million, and 194 million yuan [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Product Matrix and Market Focus - The company has focused on the wheel hub bearing market for over 20 years, with a diverse product matrix including wheel hub bearings, cone bearings, and more [13][17]. - The company has successfully transitioned from a focus on the aftermarket to expanding into OEM business, achieving significant sales growth [14][26]. 2. Market Expansion and Opportunities - The global bearing market is projected to grow significantly, with the Chinese market expected to reach 54.4 billion USD by 2030 [44]. - The domestic wheel hub bearing market is also expanding, with a forecasted market size of 10.17 billion yuan in 2024, growing at a CAGR of 7.99% [58]. 3. Sales and Revenue Growth - The company has seen a steady increase in sales, with 2023 sales reaching 2,234 million units, a 5.5% increase year-on-year [29]. - The company’s revenue for the first half of 2024 was 515 million yuan, reflecting an 11.24% year-on-year growth [29]. 4. Profitability and Financial Metrics - The company maintains a high gross margin, with a sales gross margin of 32.0% in 2023, up by 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [34]. - The average selling price of key products remains stable, with wheel hub units priced close to 100 yuan per set [34]. 5. Research and Development - The company has consistently increased its R&D investment, with expenditures of 28 million yuan in 2023, aimed at enhancing product quality and competitiveness [37][40]. 6. Ownership Structure - The company has a stable ownership structure, with the actual controllers holding 41.17% of the shares, ensuring continuity in management and strategic direction [41].