IMDTECL(SZ:002128) Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-03-13 11:02Investment Rating - The report gives an initial investment rating of "Buy" for the company, highlighting it as a benchmark for energy transition and a non-cyclical growth stock under a central enterprise [5][17][20]. Core Viewpoints - The company has established the world's first integrated "coal-green electricity-aluminum" industrial park model, characterized by low costs, stable profits from long-term contracts, and a template for promoting circular economy and green transition [6][22]. - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26% in pre-tax profits from 2014 to 2023, with seven profit increases in the past nine years, positioning itself as an outlier in the cyclical industry [6][22]. - The company aims to become a hundred billion profit enterprise with over a hundred billion in operating cash flow by 2030, under the guidance of the "Balanced Growth Strategy" [6][22]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price as of March 12, 2025, is 18.89 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 42.34 billion yuan [3]. Financial Analysis - From 2014 to 2023, the company's revenue and profit CAGR were 17% and 26%, respectively, with cumulative cash dividends of 7.2 billion yuan [14]. - The company has maintained an average return on equity (ROE) of 14% and a debt ratio averaging 35%, projected to be below 30% by 2024 [14]. Business Model - The company operates a unique integrated business model in Inner Mongolia, leveraging abundant wind, solar, and coal resources, and has established a stable ecosystem with an 85% long-term contract ratio for coal sales [7][35]. - The company’s coal business has an average gross margin of 50%, with a projected profit contribution of around 4 billion yuan in 2024 [35]. Growth Strategy - The company is focused on high-quality development, with new projects expected to maintain high ROE levels, particularly in the renewable energy sector [8][50]. - The company has a robust pipeline of renewable energy projects, with a target of reaching 33 GW of installed capacity by 2030 [56]. Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 5.36 billion, 6.10 billion, and 7.11 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 2.39, 2.72, and 3.17 yuan [17][20].