挚文集团：维持稳定股东回馈，关注海外业务增长-20250314

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for MOMO US with a target price adjusted to $7.20 from$7.40, indicating a potential upside of 0.4% [1][2][19]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas business while maintaining stable shareholder returns. The revenue forecast for 2025 remains unchanged, but the adjusted net profit estimate has been reduced by 5% to RMB 1.24 billion due to increased investment in potential new overseas products [1][6]. - The company has announced a special dividend of $0.30 per ADS, with a payout ratio of 29$200 million [1][6]. Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, the total revenue was RMB 2.64 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, while the adjusted net profit was RMB 230 million, down 55% year-on-year, primarily due to a one-time film production cost of RMB 94.1 million [6][16]. - The adjusted net profit margin for Q4 2024 was 12%, a decline of 5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the increased proportion of revenue from new overseas applications and rising operational costs [6][16]. - The company expects a 4% year-on-year decline in revenue for Q1 2025, with the main platform's live streaming business under pressure [6][17]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The revenue forecast for 2025 is set at RMB 10.015 billion, with the main platform MOMO expected to generate RMB 9.328 billion and Tantan projected at RMB 683 million [5][17]. - The adjusted gross profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 3.630 billion, with an adjusted gross margin of 36.2% [5][17]. - The adjusted operating profit is forecasted to be RMB 1.217 billion, with an adjusted operating margin of 12.2% [5][17]. Market Position and Valuation - The company's market capitalization is $1.2 billion, which is lower than its net cash of$1.4 billion as of Q4 2024 [1][6]. - The stock has a 52-week high of $8.15 and a low of$4.84, with a year-to-date change of -7% [4][19].