宇通客车：出口高增、行稳致远，成长与防守兼具-20250314

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Yutong Bus (宇通客车) [6] Core Views - Yutong Bus has maintained its position as the top seller of large and medium-sized buses in China for 21 consecutive years, with a projected net profit of 4.045 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 122.50% [4][26] - The company is expected to benefit from a stable domestic demand for buses and a significant increase in exports, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment [4][5] - The report highlights the company's strong performance in both domestic and international markets, with a notable increase in sales and profitability driven by exports and new energy products [5][48] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Yutong Bus has been a leader in the bus industry for decades, with a global market share exceeding 10% and cumulative sales of over 196,000 new energy buses [13] 2. Market Demand and Growth - Domestic demand for large and medium-sized buses is stabilizing, with a significant increase in tourism vehicle demand and a recovery in public transport bus sales [4][37] - The company is expected to achieve a total sales volume of 46,900 units in 2024, with large and medium-sized buses accounting for 40,300 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.97% [19][22] 3. Export Performance - Yutong's export volume is projected to reach 14,000 units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 37.73%, with new energy vehicle exports growing by 84.55% [5][48] - The company is successfully entering high-end markets in Europe and other regions, with significant orders from countries like Greece and Chile [61][62] 4. Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.030 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected growth rate of 121.79% [6][26] - The average selling price (ASP) for exported buses is approximately double that of domestic sales, contributing to higher profit margins [51] 5. Cost Management - Yutong has effectively managed its costs, with a significant reduction in single vehicle depreciation costs and a decrease in overall expense ratios [63][70] - The company’s expense ratio has decreased to 14.45% in the first half of 2024, indicating strong cost control measures [70]