Muyuan Foods (SZ:002714) Dongxing Securities·2025-03-14 08:32Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "positive" for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [5] Core Viewpoints - In February, the average price of live pigs decreased due to oversupply, while the price of piglets remained strong. The average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork were 36.21 CNY/kg, 16.00 CNY/kg, and 27.46 CNY/kg respectively, with month-on-month changes of 6.59%, -3.68%, and -1.57% [11][16] - The supply side is seeing a gradual recovery in post-holiday slaughtering, leading to an overall sufficient market supply. The demand side is experiencing a post-holiday decline, with a slow recovery in terminal demand and slaughtering operations [13][19] - The report anticipates that the pig price recovery in the coming months will rely on the entry of secondary fattening [13][21] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The market supply is generally sufficient, with a gradual return to normal slaughtering rates post-holiday. The average slaughtering rate in February was 20.24% [13][19] - Demand: Post-holiday demand is declining, with a slow recovery in terminal demand and slaughtering operations. The price difference between live pigs and pork is 4.53 CNY/kg, indicating weak consumer performance [13][19] Cost and Pricing Trends - The report highlights that the imposition of tariffs on certain imported agricultural products from the U.S. is expected to raise breeding costs. Tariffs include a 15% increase on wheat and corn, and a 10% increase on sorghum and soybeans [16][19] - The breeding cost for leading companies is crucial for maintaining profitability during periods of declining pig prices. Companies like Shennong Group and Wens Foodstuffs have managed to keep their breeding costs below 13 CNY/kg [33][34] Market Performance of Listed Companies - In February, the sales prices of major listed companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, Zhengbang Technology, and New Hope were 14.76 CNY/kg, 14.96 CNY/kg, 14.35 CNY/kg, and 14.64 CNY/kg respectively, showing a month-on-month decline of 5.53%, 5.27%, 6.67%, and 5.07% [24][25] - The total slaughter volume in February showed a significant decline, with companies like Wens Foodstuffs and Zhengbang Technology experiencing decreases of 10.39% and 21.12% respectively [25][30] Future Outlook - The report predicts that high-quality production capacity is likely to remain profitable in 2025. The industry index PB has slightly increased but remains at a low level. The report suggests that as consumption-boosting policies are implemented in 2025, leading breeding companies are expected to see valuation recovery [21][34]