BABA(09988) 长江证券·2025-03-14 08:48Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The report highlights the company's strong commitment to technology investment and the potential commercialization opportunities arising from the new AI cycle. The integration of intelligent advertising tools is already contributing to the advertising business, and the commercialization process of Taotian is accelerating. The focus on improving the merchant business environment is expected to optimize the Taobao ecosystem [2][5]. Financial Performance - For FY2025 Q3, Alibaba's revenue reached 280.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%. The Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 51.3 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 48.9 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 239% [5]. Business Segments - Taotian Group: The CMR (Customer Management Revenue) grew by 9% year-on-year, driven by the full-quarter impact of basic software service fees and the increased penetration of comprehensive promotion tools. The EBITA for Taotian Group increased by 2% year-on-year, indicating stable profitability during the commercialization acceleration phase [5]. - AIDC: Revenue grew by 32% year-on-year, although EBITA losses expanded to 5 billion yuan, primarily due to investments aimed at user acquisition during overseas shopping festivals [5]. - Cloud Intelligence Group: Revenue increased by 13% year-on-year, with EBITA growing by 33%. The capital expenditure for FY2025 Q1-Q3 saw a significant increase, reflecting a 259% year-on-year growth [5]. Membership Growth - The number of 88VIP members reached 49 million, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3 million and a year-on-year increase of 19 million. This growth is attributed to the optimization of the membership benefits system, which is expected to drive new buyers and orders [5]. Future Profit Projections - The report projects the net profit attributable to shareholders for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 to be 139.6 billion yuan, 157.6 billion yuan, and 189.3 billion yuan, respectively [5].