中广核矿业：Profit alert mainly related to one-off items; core profit remains intact-20250314

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for CGN Mining with a target price of HK$2.36, indicating a potential upside of 55.5$1.52 [3]. Core Insights - CGN Mining's profit alert indicates a net profit drop of HK$130-180 million year-on-year for 2024, primarily due to a one-off dividend withholding tax and a fair value loss from share swaps related to Paladin Energy. However, excluding these items, the pretax profit from continuing operations is expected to grow by HK$230-280 million year-on-year, translating to a growth rate of 41-50% [1]. - The company is set to release its full-year results on March 20, 2025, and will host an analyst meeting on March 21, 2025 [1][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from HK$7,363 million in FY23 to HK$10,992 million in FY24, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 49.3% [2]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to decline from HK$497.1 million in FY23 to HK$443.4 million in FY24, a decrease of 10.8% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to decrease from 6.54 HK$cents in FY23 to 5.83 HK$ cents in FY24 [2]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 26.1x in FY24, decreasing to 17.1x in FY25 [2]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 13.8% in FY23 to 10.8% in FY24, before recovering to 14.6% in FY25 [2]. Share Performance - The market capitalization of CGN Mining is approximately HK$11,553 million, with an average turnover of HK$72.3 million over the past three months [3]. - The stock has experienced a 1-month decline of 2.6% and a 3-month decline of 7.9% [5]. Shareholding Structure - The major shareholder is China General Nuclear Power Corporation, holding 56.9% of the shares, followed by China Chengtong Holding Group with 10.0% [4].