Costco-开市客：FY2025 Q2业绩点评：业绩保持稳健增长，但潜在关税问题可能使成本端承压-20250314

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Costco is maintained at "Neutral" [1][3]. Core Insights - Costco's revenue for FY25 Q2 increased by 9.1% year-on-year to $62.5 billion, with net profit rising by 2.6% to$ 1.79 billion and diluted EPS also up by 2.6% to $4.02 per share [3]. - Membership revenue grew by 7.4% year-on-year, with a global renewal rate of 90.5% and a membership count of 78.4 million, of which 36.9 million are premium members [3]. - E-commerce comparable sales surged by 20.9% year-on-year, driven by a 13% increase in website traffic and a 10% rise in average transaction value [3]. - The company plans to open 18 new warehouse stores globally in FY2025, increasing its total to 915 stores by the end of the fiscal year [3]. - Potential tariff issues may pressure the company's cost structure, as approximately one-third of its products sold in the U.S. are imported, with nearly half sourced from China, Mexico, and Canada [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY2025-2027 are$ 268.7 billion, $286.8 billion, and$ 302.9 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5.60%, 6.75%, and 5.60% respectively [1][3]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are $7.98 billion,$ 8.28 billion, and $9.38 billion, with growth rates of 8.30%, 3.77%, and 13.32% respectively [1][3]. - The projected P/E ratios for FY2025-2027 are 51.97, 50.08, and 44.20 [1][3].