Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group, with a target price of 220.5 HKD per share [4][9]. Core Insights - JD Group's Q4 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 3469.9 billion CNY, representing a year-over-year increase of 13.4%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 112.9 billion CNY, up 34.2% year-over-year [6][9]. - The company benefits from the "old-for-new" policy, which has significantly boosted revenue, particularly in the electronics sector [6][9]. - The forecast for revenue from 2024 to 2026 has been adjusted upward due to the better-than-expected impact of the old-for-new policy, with projected revenues of 11588 billion CNY, 12586 billion CNY, and 13322 billion CNY respectively [3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, JD Group achieved a product revenue of 2809.8 billion CNY, a 14.0% increase year-over-year, with the electronics category generating 1741.5 billion CNY, up 15.8% year-over-year [6][9]. - The service revenue for Q4 2024 was 660.1 billion CNY, reflecting a 10.8% year-over-year growth, driven by increased user engagement and advertising revenue [6][9]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected to be 436 billion CNY, with further increases to 483 billion CNY in 2025 and 510 billion CNY in 2026 [3][9]. Segment Performance - JD Retail's revenue for Q4 2024 was 3070.6 billion CNY, a 14.7% increase year-over-year, benefiting from high growth in home appliances and electronics [6][9]. - JD Logistics reported revenue of 521.0 billion CNY for Q4 2024, a 10.4% year-over-year increase, with operating profit rising by 37.1% [6][9]. - New business initiatives, including the launch of JD's food delivery service, are in early stages but are expected to leverage existing logistics capabilities without significant immediate financial impact [6][9]. Shareholder Returns - In 2024, JD Group repurchased 2.553 million shares for approximately 36 billion USD, representing 8.1% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2023 [6][9]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.5 USD per share in 2024, totaling around 1.5 billion USD [6][9].
京东集团-SW：京东集团24Q4点评：24Q4业绩超预期，25年国补红利持续释放-20250314