宁德时代：业绩符合预期，盈利维持韧性-20250315

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with revenues of 362 billion RMB, a decrease of 10% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 15% to 50.7 billion RMB [1][2]. - The company continues to experience strong demand, with Q4 2024 battery shipments reaching 474 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 22% [2]. - The company is focused on maintaining high research and development investments, with innovations in battery technology and manufacturing processes [3]. - The company is projected to benefit from the current industry inventory replenishment cycle and overseas capital expansion, with expected revenues of 700 billion RMB in 2025 and 840 billion RMB in 2026 [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenues of 1,030 billion RMB, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 14.7 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 14% [1][2]. - The company's gross margin for Q4 was impacted by a 11.5 percentage point effect from warranty costs, resulting in a gross margin of 15% [2]. Demand and Supply Analysis - The company’s battery prices remained stable at 0.60-0.65 RMB/Wh in Q4, with a year-on-year decrease of nearly 17% due to lower raw material prices [2]. - The introduction of new battery technologies is expected to increase the company's market share in high-end and mid-range segments [3]. Research and Development - The company is significantly investing in R&D, with a focus on smart and electric technologies, including the development of advanced battery systems and manufacturing automation [3]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 26.55% in 2025, with net profit projected to reach 70 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 38% [7]. - The company's P/E ratio is projected to be 16x in 2025 and 14x in 2026, indicating a favorable valuation compared to expected earnings growth [4].