湖南裕能：2024年年报点评：Q4业绩符合预期，25Q1起涨价落地拐点将至-20250315

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hunan YN Energy [1] Core Views - Q4 performance met market expectations with a revenue of 6.72 billion yuan, a 4% decrease quarter-on-quarter but a 32% increase year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 100 million yuan, reflecting a 165% increase quarter-on-quarter [8] - The company is expected to see a significant increase in shipments in 2025, with a forecast of 900,000 to 1,000,000 tons, maintaining a growth rate of 30-40% year-on-year [8] - The report anticipates an increase in profitability due to price hikes from major customers starting in Q1 2025, with expected profit per ton rising to 1,000-2,000 yuan [8] Financial Forecasts - For 2024, total revenue is projected at 22.6 billion yuan, a 45.36% decrease year-on-year, with a net profit of 593.55 million yuan, down 62.45% year-on-year [1][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 0.78 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 51.21 [1][9] - By 2025, the net profit is expected to rebound to 2.29 billion yuan, with an EPS of 3.02 yuan and a P/E ratio of 13.30 [1][9] Market Data - The closing price is 40.14 yuan, with a market capitalization of 30.4 billion yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.65 and a debt-to-asset ratio of 58.14% [6][5] Operational Insights - The company’s operational cash flow turned negative in 2024, with a net cash flow of -1.04 billion yuan [9] - Inventory levels increased significantly, with a year-on-year rise of 111% [8]