浙江交科：交通基建发力，省属龙头腾飞在即-20250316

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [4]. Core Views - The company, Zhejiang Jiaokao, is positioned as a leading player in regional transportation infrastructure, with significant recovery in performance expected due to increased provincial investment in transportation projects [1][2]. - The company has a strong backing from its major shareholder, Zhejiang Provincial Transportation Investment Group, which is expected to drive continued growth in orders and revenue [3][4]. - The recent stock incentive plan aims for a stable growth target of 6%, enhancing investor confidence in the company's long-term value [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Zhejiang Jiaokao has transitioned from a chemical-focused company to a transportation infrastructure leader after divesting its chemical business in 2021 [1][14]. - The company has shown a significant recovery in its operating performance, with a 3.2% increase in revenue in Q1-3 2024 compared to the previous year [18][20]. Industry Analysis - Zhejiang Province has robust fiscal strength, ranking third nationally in comprehensive financial capacity, which supports ongoing infrastructure investments [2][31]. - The province's fixed asset investment has maintained a high growth rate, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.5% from 2015 to 2023 [2][31]. Order and Revenue Growth - The company has a substantial backlog of orders, and with the expected acceleration in project execution, revenue growth is anticipated to pick up significantly starting in 2025 [3][4]. - The company’s net profit for Q1-3 2024 reached 840 million, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [1][20]. Financial Performance and Projections - The report forecasts net profits of 1.48 billion, 1.66 billion, and 1.83 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 10%, 12%, and 10% [4][6]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.57 in 2024 to 0.70 in 2026, suggesting a positive trend in profitability [4][6].