Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved its best historical performance in 2024, with revenue of 156.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.37 billion yuan, up 95.2% year-on-year [1]. - The increase in net profit is primarily due to the simultaneous rise in both volume and price of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, along with a decrease in raw material procurement prices compared to the same period in 2023 [1]. - The report anticipates that aluminum prices will remain high due to low global inventory and rigid domestic supply, with potential further increases in pricing driven by Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a rise in green aluminum usage [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company sold 5.837 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, and 10.921 million tons of alumina, a 5.3% increase year-on-year [2]. - The average selling price for electrolytic aluminum was 17,550 yuan/ton, up 6.6% year-on-year, while alumina's selling price was 3,420 yuan/ton, up 33.6% year-on-year [2]. - The gross margin for electrolytic aluminum increased by 7.2 percentage points to 24.6%, and for alumina, it rose by 24.3 percentage points to 35.4% [2]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The decline in coal prices has improved power generation costs, with a reduction of 86 yuan/ton in coal prices leading to a decrease of 377.3 yuan in the cost of producing one ton of electrolytic aluminum [3]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is becoming rigid, with production capacity nearing 44 million tons, which, combined with recovering demand, is expected to support high aluminum prices [3]. Future Projections - The report projects net profits for the company to be 21.4 billion yuan in 2025, 24.2 billion yuan in 2026, and 26.9 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 6.7, 5.9, and 5.3, respectively [4][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from its integrated cost advantages and overseas expansion, leading to significant growth [4].
中国宏桥：历史最佳业绩，一体化成本优势凸显-20250316