HAIDILAO(06862) 华兴证券·2025-03-16 03:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao with a target price of HK16.96 [1][5]. Core Insights - The report anticipates low single-digit growth in both revenue and profit for 2024, with a projected revenue increase of 4.0% to RMB 431.1 billion and a net profit growth of 2.1% to RMB 45.9 billion [3][5]. - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to face significant operational pressure, with potential revenue and profit declines due to high base effects from the previous year [4][5]. - The valuation is based on a 19x P/E ratio for 2026, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 being RMB 0.82, RMB 0.91, and RMB 0.96 respectively [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at RMB 431.1 billion, with a 4.0% year-on-year growth. The net profit is projected to be RMB 45.9 billion, reflecting a 2.1% increase [3][6]. - The report outlines a slight increase in gross margin to 61.5% for 2024, driven by lower beef and lamb prices [3][7]. Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the revenue forecasts downwards for 2024-2026 by 6.5%, 9.2%, and 10.5% respectively, while net profit estimates are adjusted upwards by 2.1% for 2024 and 1.6% for 2025, but down by 0.4% for 2026 [7][6]. Market Position - Haidilao's market capitalization is approximately US$12.16 billion, with a current share count of 5,574 million [1][5]. - The report highlights that the company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory despite facing challenges in the upcoming quarters [5][6].