AIA(01299) 天风证券·2025-03-16 06:22Investment Rating - The investment rating for AIA Group is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [6]. Core Insights - AIA Group achieved a strong performance in 2024 with a New Business Value (NBV) of USD 4.712 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 18%. The annualized new premiums reached USD 8.606 billion, up 14% year-on-year, with an NBV margin improvement of 1.9 percentage points to 54.5% [1]. - The growth in NBV was driven by significant contributions from both the agency force and partner distribution channels, which recorded NBV of USD 3.707 billion and USD 1.301 billion, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 16% and 28% [1]. - All regions reported double-digit growth in new business value, with notable increases in Mainland China and Hong Kong, achieving growth rates of 20% and 23%, respectively [1][2]. Summary by Sections Group Performance - AIA Group's 2024 NBV reached USD 4.712 billion, up 18% year-on-year, with annualized new premiums of USD 8.606 billion, reflecting a 14% increase. The NBV margin improved to 54.5% [1]. Mainland China - In Mainland China, the 2024 NBV recorded a year-on-year growth of 20% to USD 1.217 billion, with new subsidiaries contributing 27% to the growth. The NBV margin increased by 4.9 percentage points to 56.1% [2]. Hong Kong - Hong Kong's 2024 NBV grew by 23% to USD 1.764 billion, the highest proportion within the group. The demand for flagship savings products remained strong, and the company expects continued robust growth in 2025 [3]. ASEAN and Other Markets - AIA successfully capitalized on wealth growth opportunities in Singapore, achieving a 15% increase in NBV to USD 0.454 billion. Thailand and Malaysia also reported NBV growth of 15% and 10%, respectively [4]. OPAT and Share Buyback - The 2024 Operating Profit After Tax (OPAT) was USD 6.605 billion, up 7% year-on-year, with a per-share increase of 12%. A new share buyback plan of USD 1.6 billion has been approved, expected to yield approximately 6% total return for shareholders [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates continued strong growth in 2025, driven by market expansion in Mainland China and sustained demand for savings products in Hong Kong. The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upward to USD 7.55 billion, USD 7.94 billion, and USD 8.39 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 10.4%, 5.2%, and 5.6% respectively [5].