策略周评：资金面流动视角看A股独立行情

Core Insights - Since February 20, global market volatility has increased, with significant declines in US stocks, while A-shares have shown resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2% and the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 5.2% during the same period [1] Fund Flow Perspective - The recent strength in A-shares and increased trading volume is attributed to accelerated inflows of external capital. Domestic capital is shifting from bonds to stocks, with macro liquidity becoming more accommodative since March [2] - As of March 14, the yield on 10-year government bonds rose to 1.84%, up 14 basis points from the beginning of the month, indicating a rebalancing of funds from bonds to stocks [2] - Retail investor sentiment has strengthened significantly, with an average weekly net inflow of 161.2 billion yuan over the past five weeks, an increase of 95.7 billion yuan compared to early January [2] - Leverage funds have also seen accelerated inflows, with a cumulative scale approaching 150 billion yuan since early February, particularly benefiting the electronics and computer sectors [2] - Both public and private equity funds have reached historical high positions, with subjective long strategy private equity averaging 79% in positions by the end of February, and public mixed equity funds reaching 83.9% as of March 14 [2] Foreign Capital Outlook - Foreign capital is increasingly optimistic about A-shares, with institutions like Citigroup and HSBC downgrading US stock ratings while expressing confidence in Chinese assets, particularly in the context of artificial intelligence and the tech sector [3] - The average daily trading volume of the Stock Connect has increased, with net inflows from passive foreign capital reaching a new high since November of the previous year [3] Market Outlook - The potential impact of continued pressure on US stocks on A-shares is a key concern. If US stocks experience a significant decline, it may be challenging for A-shares to remain unaffected [4] - However, the likelihood of a liquidity crisis in A-shares is currently low, and they may even benefit from liquidity spillover from US stock declines [5] - If US stocks experience moderate declines, A-shares are expected to maintain their independent performance, driven primarily by domestic policies and industry trends [7]