ZJJH(SH:600160) Shanghai Securities·2025-03-16 10:21Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [1] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic fluorochemical industry, with significant advantages in integrated supply chains and a comprehensive range of products [4][14] - The third-generation refrigerant quota plan has been officially implemented, providing the company with favorable conditions for growth in its refrigerant business [5][7] - The company is expected to see continuous revenue growth and improved profitability due to the increasing demand for high-value fluorinated materials and the expansion of production capacity [6][7] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading manufacturer in the fluorochemical and chlor-alkali chemical sectors, with a complete industrial chain that includes basic chemical raw materials, food packaging materials, and fluorochemical products [14][15] - The company has a strong market position in the production of refrigerants, holding significant quotas for both second and third-generation refrigerants [15][17] Industry Dynamics - The third-generation refrigerant market is entering a quota management phase, which is expected to drive industry growth and stabilize prices [39][55] - The demand for refrigerants is stable, with major applications in air conditioning, refrigeration, and automotive sectors, which are projected to grow in the coming years [44][49] Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to increase from 224.58 billion yuan in 2024 to 302.50 billion yuan in 2026, with net profits expected to rise from 19.70 billion yuan to 41.40 billion yuan during the same period [7][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to grow from 0.73 yuan in 2024 to 1.53 yuan in 2026, indicating a positive outlook for profitability [7][11] Production Capacity and Expansion - The company has been expanding its production capacity across various product lines, including high-performance fluorinated materials, which are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth [6][7] - New projects, such as the high-quality meltable fluororesin and high-end fluoropolymer projects, are set to enhance the company’s product offerings and market competitiveness [6][7] Market Trends - The implementation of large-scale consumer goods replacement policies in China is anticipated to stimulate demand for air conditioning and refrigeration products, further benefiting the company [52][54] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing market for high-value fluorinated materials, driven by increasing applications in various industries [6][7]