CATL(300750) 东吴证券·2025-03-16 03:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2024 met market expectations, with a total revenue of 362 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 50.7 billion yuan, an increase of 15% year-on-year [2][11] - The company is expected to experience high growth in 2025, with a projected sales volume of 650 GWh, representing a growth of over 35% [10][19] - The report anticipates stable pricing for high-end products in 2025, despite a slight decrease in average prices in 2024 [21] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 362 billion yuan, with a net profit of 50.7 billion yuan, and a gross margin of 24.4% [11][24] - The Q4 2024 revenue was approximately 103 billion yuan, with a net profit of 14.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14% [11][12] - The company’s gross margin for Q4 2024 was reported at 15%, impacted by the accounting treatment of warranty provisions [21][29] Battery Business - The total battery shipment for 2024 was 474 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 22%, with a significant contribution from energy storage systems [10][16] - The company’s production capacity is expected to increase, with a projected capacity of 676 GWh by the end of 2024 [19][20] Pricing and Margins - The average price of power batteries in 2024 was 0.75 yuan/Wh, a decrease of 25% year-on-year, while the average price for energy storage batteries was 0.7 yuan/Wh [21] - The report projects that the gross margin will stabilize above 25% in 2025, despite fluctuations in warranty provisions affecting Q4 2024 margins [21][29] International Revenue - In 2024, international revenue accounted for 30% of total revenue, with a slight decrease due to reduced demand in Europe [24] - The report anticipates a rebound in international revenue in 2026, driven by new production facilities coming online [24] Other Business Segments - Revenue from lithium battery materials and recycling decreased by 15% year-on-year, while other business segments showed stable growth [25][26] - The company reported a significant increase in inventory levels, preparing for anticipated high demand in 2025 [29][34]