Midea Group(000333) 光大证券·2025-03-17 03:36Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Midea Group, with a target price of 86.00 CNY, compared to the current price of 71.87 CNY [3][5]. Core Views - Midea Group demonstrates strong resilience in its consumer (C-end) business, benefiting from the appliance replacement policy in China, which is expected to continue driving growth in 2025 [1]. - The overseas market shows robust growth, with a 38% year-on-year increase in air conditioning exports in Q4 2024, indicating a solid international strategy [1]. - The B-end business also shows steady growth, particularly in the new energy and industrial technology sectors, with a notable improvement in the robotics and automation segment in the second half of 2024 [2]. Summary by Sections C-end Business - The appliance replacement policy has significantly boosted domestic sales, with air conditioning sales in Q4 2024 up by 24% year-on-year, while the cumulative sales for Q1-Q3 2024 were down by 2% [1]. - The overseas sales for air conditioning in Q4 2024 increased by 38%, with a cumulative increase of 31% for Q1-Q3 2024, reflecting Midea's commitment to expanding its OBM strategy in emerging markets [1]. B-end Business - The overall revenue for Midea's B-end business grew by 5% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2024, with specific segments like new energy and industrial technology showing growth rates of 19% and 6%, respectively [2]. - The robotics and automation segment is expected to see a revenue decline of 4% for the full year 2024, but Q4 2024 is projected to show a 12% increase in revenue [2]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - Midea Group's net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 38.88 billion CNY, 43.64 billion CNY, and 49.15 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14, 12, and 11 [3]. - The current PE ratio is 14.4, which is below the 5-year average PE ratios of 15.8 for Midea and 18.7 for Haier, indicating that Midea is undervalued [3]. - The report emphasizes the effectiveness of the appliance replacement policy and the company's strong performance stability, justifying the "Buy" rating and target price [3].