SJM HOLDINGS(00880) 第一上海证券·2025-03-17 06:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 3.02, representing a potential upside of 24.3% from the current price of HKD 2.43 [1][2]. Core Insights - The company's Q4 2024 performance met expectations, with a continuous improvement in debt ratios. The overall market share slightly decreased, but the company is expected to benefit from Macau's ongoing recovery [2][3]. - The report highlights significant growth in net income, projecting a remarkable increase from a loss of HKD 2,009.8 million in 2023 to a profit of HKD 885.9 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 27,585.7% [2][3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its competitive advantage through the performance of "上葡京" and the installation of smart gaming tables, which are expected to be completed by November this year [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue Growth: The company reported a net income of HKD 21,623.2 million in 2023, with projections of HKD 30,400.2 million in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 33.0% [2][3]. - EBITDA: The EBITDA for 2023 was HKD 1,727.0 million, with a forecasted increase to HKD 4,517.7 million in 2025, showing a growth rate of 14.1% [2][3]. - Net Profit: The net profit is expected to rise significantly, from a loss in 2023 to a profit of HKD 885.9 million in 2025, with a projected net profit margin of 2.9% [2][3]. - Debt Ratios: The net debt/EBITDA ratio improved from 13.7 times to 6.3 times, indicating a healthier financial position [2][3]. Market Performance - The company's overall market share in Q4 2024 was 13.5%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][3]. - The report notes that the company's cash balance is approximately HKD 3,220 million, with net debt around HKD 23,200 million [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company plans to invest HKD 15-20 billion in capital expenditures starting in 2025, which includes renovations and expansions to enhance its offerings [2][3]. - The report anticipates double-digit growth in gaming revenue for January-February 2025, with the market share expected to remain stable compared to Q4 2024 [2][3].