LI AUTO(02015) 长江证券·2025-03-17 09:20Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the gross profit margin is temporarily affected by preferential policies, but the upcoming new vehicle cycle is expected to contribute to incremental growth [4]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved sales of 159,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 20.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.8%, generating revenue of 44.27 billion yuan, which is a 6.1% increase year-on-year and a 3.3% increase quarter-on-quarter [2][4]. - The vehicle gross margin reached 19.7%, down 3.0 percentage points year-on-year and 1.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to the impact of a December interest-free car purchase policy [4]. Summary by Sections Sales and Revenue - In Q4 2024, the average selling price per vehicle was approximately 269,000 yuan, with total vehicle sales revenue of 42.64 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.2% [4]. - The company expects Q1 2025 delivery volumes to be between 88,000 and 93,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.5% to 15.7% [4]. Profitability - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.52 billion yuan in Q4 2024, a decrease of 37.7% year-on-year [4]. - The net profit margin was 9.1%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the profit per vehicle was 25,000 yuan, a decrease of 9,000 yuan year-on-year [4]. Product Strategy - The company has a clear product planning strategy with a lineup of "four range-extended electric vehicle models and one high-voltage pure electric model," covering the market above 200,000 yuan [4]. - The company has optimized its direct sales channel structure, with 500 retail centers across 150 cities as of the end of February 2025 [4]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates strong new vehicle cycles starting in 2025, which will open up sales opportunities for the company [4]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 9.77 billion, 14.18 billion, and 19.65 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22.7X, 15.6X, and 11.3X [4].