NBGF(603788) Dongxing Securities·2025-03-17 10:45Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a projected PE of 19.8x/15.9x/12.9x for 2024-2026 [11]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the automotive electronic shifting and throttle control systems, benefiting from the trends of electrification and intelligence in the automotive industry [4][42]. - The company has a strong cost control and efficiency, which will help maintain its competitive edge in the industry [4][42]. - The company is expected to achieve stable revenue growth driven by the increasing market share of domestic brands and expansion into joint ventures and overseas markets [4][42]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1999, specializes in automotive shifting control systems, electronic throttle pedals, and cables, with a revenue distribution of 51% for shifting systems, 18% for electronic throttle pedals, and 18% for cables in 2023 [1][16]. - The company has a strong customer base, including major domestic manufacturers like Geely, BYD, and Great Wall [1][16]. Product Benefits from Industry Trends - The demand for electronic shifting systems and throttle pedals is increasing due to the trends of electrification and intelligence in vehicles, with the penetration rate of automotive electronics expected to approach 50% by 2030 [42][49]. - The company’s main products are well-positioned to benefit from the rising penetration of new energy vehicles [42][49]. Competitive Advantages - The company has a significant market share in the domestic brand sector, with nearly 50% of the supply share for electronic throttle pedals among domestic brands [2][56]. - The company has successfully expanded its customer base to include new energy vehicle manufacturers like Xiaomi and NIO, enhancing its growth potential in joint ventures and overseas markets [2][56]. Financial Performance - The company has demonstrated excellent cost control, with a management expense ratio approximately 10 percentage points lower than industry peers, and a stable inventory turnover rate [3][30]. - The company has maintained a strong cash flow, with an average annual net cash inflow of 150 million since its listing, and a cash dividend payout ratio consistently above 70% [3][30]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.49 billion, 1.73 billion, and 2.03 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.0%, 16.2%, and 16.9% [12][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 200.81 million, 250.16 million, and 308.89 million for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 23.46%, 24.58%, and 23.48% [12][4].