CATL(300750) 光大证券·2025-03-18 05:56Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 362.01 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decline of 9.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 50.74 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 15.0% [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 45.53 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), with total dividends accounting for 50% of the net profit for 2024 [1]. - The production capacity utilization rate is at 76%, with expectations for an increase in the second half of the year, and total capacity projected to reach 676 GWh by the end of 2024 [1][3]. - The sales volume of lithium batteries reached 475 GWh in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.79% [1]. Summary by Sections Business Segments - The sales volume of power batteries in Q4 2024 was 125 GWh, with a unit price of 0.62 yuan/Wh, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7% [2]. - The gross margin for power batteries improved to 23.2%, up by 3.7 percentage points from the previous quarter, driven by product structure upgrades [2]. - The sales volume of energy storage batteries in Q4 2024 was 20 GWh, with a unit price of 0.55 yuan/Wh, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7% [2]. Competitive Advantage - The company is enhancing its product matrix with new offerings such as the Xiaoyao and Tianxing batteries, which are expected to support over 30 vehicle models and drive growth in 2025 [3]. - The demand for energy storage solutions is anticipated to rise due to the increasing need for data centers powered by AI, which require high energy density and continuous power supply [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company’s revenue is projected to recover to 457.18 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 26.29% [7]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 65.64 billion yuan, representing a growth rate of 29.36% [7]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17 for 2025, 14 for 2026, and 12 for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [3][7].