Raycloud(688365) 信达证券·2025-03-18 07:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][5] Core Views - The company has been deeply engaged in the e-commerce SaaS sector for fifteen years, building a comprehensive service ecosystem that covers various platforms such as Taobao, JD, Pinduoduo, Douyin, and WeChat, providing a full-chain solution for e-commerce operations [3][10] - The company has achieved positive cash flow starting in 2023, with expectations for a performance inflection point in 2025 as it focuses on high-margin businesses and improves cost control [3][30] - The e-commerce SaaS market is expanding, with the market size projected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2026, driven by new business models such as live e-commerce and cross-border e-commerce [3][34] - The company employs a tiered strategy to deepen customer coverage, with AI technology enhancing operational efficiency and driving growth [3][38] Summary by Sections 1. Deep Engagement in E-commerce SaaS - The company has established itself as a leading provider of SaaS products for e-commerce merchants, offering additional hardware and operational services to create a full-service ecosystem [3][10] - The company has a strong reputation and brand effect, with a young management team providing comprehensive solutions for e-commerce operations [3][12] 2. Positive Cash Flow and Performance Inflection Point - From 2018 to 2024, the company reported revenues of 4.65, 4.65, 5.1, 5.45, 4.95, 4.75, and 4.82 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of +29.89%, -0.18%, +9.75%, +6.94%, -9.42%, -3.74%, and +1.46% respectively [3][16] - The company is expected to achieve a profit turnaround in 2025, with a projected net profit of 8 million yuan [5][30] 3. E-commerce SaaS Market Expansion - The Chinese SaaS market grew from 14.52 billion yuan in 2018 to 70.28 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 30.2%, and is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2026 [3][34] - The market is characterized by a pyramid competition structure, with different needs and price sensitivities among various tiers of merchants [3][35] 4. Tiered Strategy and AI Empowerment - The company has covered over 1.2 million paying users, processing an average of over 30 million packages daily, with significant revenue growth from small merchants on platforms like Douyin [3][38] - AI technology has been integrated into the company's operations, enhancing efficiency and customer service, with notable improvements in sales conversion rates [3][45] 5. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 4.82 billion, 5.66 billion, and 6.82 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.5%, 17.3%, and 20.4% respectively [5][47] - The company is projected to maintain a competitive advantage in the e-commerce SaaS sector, with a target market value of 9.057 billion yuan and a target price of 21.27 yuan per share [5][47]