wanhua(600309) 华泰证券·2025-03-18 10:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wanhua Chemical [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 182.1 billion RMB for the year, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 22.5% to 13 billion RMB [1] - The decline in profit was primarily due to increased expenses and asset impairment provisions [1] - Despite the challenges, the gross profit margin remained stable year-on-year, and the company expects profitability to improve in 2025-2026 due to supply-demand improvements and new project launches [1][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4, the company achieved a revenue of 34.5 billion RMB and a net profit of 1.94 billion RMB, which represented a quarter-on-quarter decline of 53% and 34% respectively [1] - The annual profit decline was attributed to asset impairment and rising expenses, while gross profit remained stable [2] Market Conditions - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI in Q4 were 18,600 RMB/ton, 18,400 RMB/ton, and 12,900 RMB/ton, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1%, 5%, and a decrease of 5% respectively [2] - The report indicates that the prices of major products are at relatively low levels compared to the past five years, with expectations for gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics [3] Growth Prospects - The company has several projects in the pipeline, including new MDI/TDI capacities of 700,000 tons and 360,000 tons in Fujian and Ningbo respectively, with the ethylene project expected to be completed by the end of 2025 [4] - New projects are anticipated to contribute to incremental performance improvements [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted to 17.7 billion RMB and 21.4 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36% and 21% [5] - The target price is set at 95.71 RMB, based on a 17x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting the company's leading position in the polyurethane industry [5]