SAMSONITE-新秀丽点评报告：24Q4业绩环比改善，美国二次上市取得进展

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $3.6 billion for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, but a slight decline of 0.2% when excluding foreign exchange impacts. Adjusted EBITDA was$ 680 million, down 3.7% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was $350 million, down 12.9% year-on-year. In Q4 alone, revenue reached$ 940 million, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%, with adjusted EBITDA of $190 million, up 7.7% year-on-year, and net profit of$ 110 million, up 22.7% year-on-year [1][5][12]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In Q4, North America, Europe, and China saw positive revenue growth, while India and South Korea experienced declines, leading to a 7% year-on-year drop in Asian revenue. Specifically, revenue from China was $70 million (up 2%), India$ 50 million (down 28%), Japan $50 million (up 3%), and South Korea$ 30 million (down 17%). North America generated $350 million (up 4%), with the U.S. contributing$ 330 million (up 4%). Europe achieved $210 million (up 5%), with Belgium at$ 60 million (up 16%) and Germany at $30 million (down 7%) [2][3]. Brand and Channel Performance - In Q4, the brands TUMI and Samsonite saw revenue growth, with TUMI at$ 250 million (up 4%) and Samsonite at $480 million (up 3%). The DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) channel showed stable performance, with revenues of$ 280 million (up 0.1%) and $130 million (up 1.2%) for DTC self-operated and DTC e-commerce channels, respectively. The company plans to open 67 new stores, increasing the total to 1,119, demonstrating confidence in growth despite a weak retail environment [3][4]. Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for Q4 was 60.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to higher-end brand performance and discount control. The adjusted EBITDA margin reached 20.7%, a historical high, while the net profit margin was 12.2%, down 3.5 percentage points year-on-year due to a high base from previous impairment reversals [4][5]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of$ 3.7 billion, $3.8 billion, and$ 3.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.8%, 4.1%, and 3.5%. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be $370 million,$ 410 million, and $460 million for the same years, with growth rates of 6.2%, 10.8%, and 12.8%. The price-to-earnings ratio is estimated to be 10, 9, and 8 times for the respective years [5][12][13].