Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for QFIN US, with a target price raised to 46.69 [1][2][11]. Core Insights - The fourth quarter earnings exceeded expectations, with a Non-GAAP net profit of 1.972 billion RMB, up 71.5% year-on-year and 8.1% quarter-on-quarter. The guidance for the first quarter of 2025 is a net profit of 1.75-1.85 billion RMB, indicating a stable performance with a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 50% due to a low base [6][8]. - The asset quality is improving, with a 90-day overdue rate decreasing to 2.09%, a significant drop of 63 basis points from the previous quarter. The company also announced a dividend of 1.30 for the year, which corresponds to a dividend yield of approximately 23% [6][8]. - The report highlights a strong focus on shareholder returns, with a 86 million has already been executed [6][8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for QFIN US are as follows: - 2023: 16,290 million RMB - 2024: 17,166 million RMB (growth of 5.4%) - 2025E: 18,531 million RMB (growth of 8.0%) - 2026E: 19,658 million RMB (growth of 6.1%) - 2027E: 20,709 million RMB (growth of 5.3%) [5][8][14]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 4,285 million RMB - 2024: 6,264 million RMB (growth of 46.2%) - 2025E: 7,216 million RMB (growth of 15.2%) - 2026E: 7,811 million RMB (growth of 8.2%) - 2027E: 8,347 million RMB (growth of 6.9%) [5][8][14]. - The report also notes an increase in the net take rate, projected to reach 5.35% in 2025, up from 4.85% in 2024 [9][8]. Market Position and Trends - The report indicates that the light asset model's proportion remains high, accounting for 53% of loan facilitation in the fourth quarter, which is a 10 percentage point increase year-on-year [6][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from policies aimed at boosting consumption, which will play a more significant role in economic growth in 2025 [6][8].
奇富科技（QFIN）：4季度盈利超预期，资产质量改善，1季度盈利指引强劲
交银国际·2025-03-19 05:55