CHINA RES BEER(00291) 华鑫证券·2025-03-19 06:23Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" investment rating for the company [11] Core Views - The company demonstrated stable revenue performance with a slight decline in revenue but an increase in net profit when adjusted for one-time costs and government subsidies [6] - The high-end beer segment continues to grow, with a focus on premiumization and cost reduction leading to improved profitability [7] - The white liquor segment also showed positive growth, particularly in the "Summary" brand, which achieved a 35% increase [8] - Future revenue projections indicate growth, with expected revenues of 403.81 billion, 418.39 billion, and 431.50 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 386.35 billion, a decrease of 0.76%, and a net profit of 47.39 billion, down 8.03%. Adjusted net profit is approximately 45.09 billion, reflecting a 3.49% increase [6] - The gross margin for 2024 was 42.64%, an increase of 1.28 percentage points [6] - Operating cash flow for 2024 increased by 67% to 69.28 billion [6] Beer Segment - Beer revenue for 2024 was 364.86 billion, down 1.0%, with sales volume at 10.874 million kiloliters, a decrease of 2.5%. The average price per kiloliter increased by 1.5% to 3,355 [7] - High-end product sales grew by over 9%, with Heineken sales increasing nearly 20% and other premium brands seeing significant growth [7] White Liquor Segment - The white liquor segment generated revenue of 21.49 billion in 2024, a 4.0% increase, with EBITDA rising by 7.9% to 8.47 billion [8] - The "Summary" brand's growth strategy includes brand promotion and inventory management [8] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a focus on high-end development while streamlining operations and managing costs effectively, leading to favorable profit performance [9] - Earnings per share (EPS) projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.72, 1.95, and 2.20 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15, 13, and 12 [11]