CHINA RES BEER(00291) 华创证券·2025-03-19 03:20Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China Resources Beer [2][7][24]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 38.635 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, while the attributable net profit was 4.739 billion yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year. Excluding factory impairment and relocation costs, profit growth was approximately 0.2% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company has successfully implemented a high-end strategy, with high-end product sales doubling and profits increasing over three times since 2019. The high-end product sales continue to show strong growth [2][7]. - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.387 yuan per share, with a total dividend of 0.76 yuan per share for the year, resulting in a payout ratio of approximately 52% [2][3]. Financial Summary - Main business revenue is projected to grow from 38.635 billion yuan in 2024 to 41.908 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 2.5% [3][12]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 4.739 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.134 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 6.9% [3][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.46 yuan in 2024 to 1.89 yuan in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 23 times for 2025 [3][12]. Market Performance - The beer segment's revenue in the second half of 2024 is expected to decline by 0.4% to 13.92 billion yuan, with a volume decrease of about 1.2% due to weak demand and inventory reduction strategies [2][7]. - The company anticipates a recovery in sales in 2025, with a projected single-digit growth in beer sales, particularly for high-end products like Heineken, which is expected to grow over 20% [2][7]. Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency through the "Three Precision" strategy, which aims to streamline processes, reduce costs, and refine business actions [2][7]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong competitive position in both total and high-end beer markets, with a clear strategic direction for future growth [2][7].