wanhua(600309) 国金证券·2025-03-19 02:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][12]. Core Insights - The company forecasts a revenue of 182.069 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.83%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline by 22.49% to 13.975 billion RMB [1][4]. - In Q4, the company reported a revenue of 34.465 billion RMB and a net profit of 1.94 billion RMB, with a non-recurring net profit of 2.431 billion RMB [1][2]. - The company is facing challenges due to asset impairment provisions and increased operational costs, despite a steady growth in product sales [2][3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 18.983 billion RMB (+35.84%) and 20.677 billion RMB (+8.93%), respectively, with corresponding EPS of 6.046 and 6.586 RMB per share [4][7]. - The company’s revenue growth rates are expected to rebound significantly in 2025 at 19.55% after a modest growth of 3.83% in 2024 [7][10]. Market and Product Analysis - In Q4, MDI prices increased, with pure MDI averaging 18,676 RMB/ton and aggregated MDI showing improved demand due to policy impacts [3]. - The TDI market remains weak, with an average price of 12,925 RMB/ton, while soft foam polyether products saw a decline in demand, averaging 8,725 RMB/ton [3]. - Raw material prices showed mixed trends, with pure benzene averaging 7,420 RMB/ton (down 12.95% from Q3) and propane at 627 USD/ton (up 5.03%) [3]. Financial Metrics - The company’s P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 11.35X and 10.42X, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [4][7]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline to 14.18% in 2024, with a gradual recovery to 16.73% by 2025 [7][10].