YTG(000975) 华创证券·2025-03-19 07:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][17]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with significant revenue growth driven by rising gold prices and declining production costs [1][8]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 13.585 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.173 billion yuan, up 52.57% year-on-year [1][8]. - The report highlights the company's improved operational management and increased metal trading revenue as key factors for its performance [8]. Financial Performance Summary - 2024 Financial Results: - Total revenue: 13.585 billion yuan, up 67.6% year-on-year - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 2.173 billion yuan, up 52.57% year-on-year - Fourth-quarter revenue: 1.514 billion yuan, up 49.81% year-on-year, but down 72.8% quarter-on-quarter [1][3][8]. - Production Metrics: - Gold production: 8.04 tons, up 14.69% year-on-year - Silver production: 196 tons, up 1.58% year-on-year - Lead concentrate production: 12,700 tons, up 34.2% year-on-year - Zinc concentrate production: 17,000 tons, up 3.89% year-on-year [8]. - Cost and Margin Analysis: - Gold production cost: 126.25 yuan per gram, down 7% from 2023 - Overall gross margin: 29.92%, down 2.13 percentage points year-on-year - Net profit margin: 17.89%, down 1.46 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.126 billion yuan in 2025, 3.548 billion yuan in 2026, and 4.747 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 43.9%, 13.5%, and 33.8% respectively [3][8]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 21.4 yuan, based on a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 19 times for 2025 [3][8].